Every executive wrestles with this:
“Make the call now, or wait for more data?”
The best don’t guess — they use a system.
The leaders who consistently make better calls aren't lucky—they follow a systematic approach to uncertainty.
That’s why I built STRIDE, a 6-step framework designed to cut through uncertainty and help you move faster, with confidence.
This isn’t about eliminating risk. It’s about turning incomplete information into decisions that move your business forward.
The STRIDE Framework
S - Scenario Planning
T - Time Boxing
R - Reversibility Assessment
I - Information Gathering
D - Downside Protection
E - Execution Commitment
S - Scenario Planning (15 minutes)
Map out 3 scenarios: Optimistic, Realistic, Pessimistic
Don't just think outcomes—think pathways:
What has to go right for the optimistic case?
What warning signs would indicate we're heading toward the pessimistic case?
What external factors could push us between scenarios?
Executive Example: Before launching in Europe, Airbnb's leadership mapped scenarios around regulatory acceptance, user adoption rates, and competitive response. They didn't just plan for success—they planned for how they'd recognize and respond to different trajectory signals.
MedTech Example: A cardiovascular device company planning a U.S. launch mapped scenarios around FDA review timing, physician adoption curves, and hospital reimbursement readiness. Their planning allowed them to pre-position education campaigns with KOLs in case reimbursement lagged.
T - Time Boxing (5 minutes)
Set hard deadlines for both decision-making and review points.
Two critical timestamps:
Decision deadline: When you must choose, regardless of information completeness
Review checkpoint: When you'll reassess based on new data
Why this works: Uncertainty breeds endless analysis. Time constraints force you to work with available information and prevent perfectionism paralysis.
MedTech Example: During the pandemic, diagnostic firms like Abbott and Roche set tight time boxes for go/no-go decisions on rapid COVID-19 test prototypes — knowing regulatory guidance and viral dynamics would shift weekly.
R - Reversibility Assessment (10 minutes)
Classify decisions into two buckets:
Type 1 (One-way doors): Irreversible or extremely costly to undo
Require more analysis, consensus-building, and senior involvement
Examples: Major acquisitions, core technology choices, entering highly regulated markets
Type 2 (Two-way doors): Reversible with acceptable cost
Should be made quickly by individuals or small teams
Examples: Marketing campaign approaches, hiring for most roles, feature prioritization
Amazon's Jeff Bezos famously said: "Most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70% of the information you wish you had. If you wait for 90%, in most cases, you're probably being slow."
Tech Example: Amazon treating infrastructure investments as Type 1, but UX tweaks as Type 2.
MedTech Example: A surgical robotics company classified acquiring a new imaging platform as Type 1 (irreversible, capital-intensive) but treated adding new workflow features for surgeons as Type 2 (iterative, reversible with updates). This lens accelerated their development cycles without risking existential bets.
I - Information Gathering (Variable time)
Focus on gathering the right information, not more information.
Three types of uncertainty:
Known unknowns: Clear what you need to learn (market size, customer willingness to pay)
Unknown unknowns: Risks you haven't identified yet (regulatory changes, new competitors)
Chaos: Rapidly changing conditions where information becomes outdated quickly
Information hierarchy:
Primary data > Secondary data > Expert opinions > Industry reports
Recent data > Historical data (unless looking for patterns)
Specific data > General data
Time allocation rule: Spend 70% of research time on known unknowns, 20% trying to surface unknown unknowns, 10% on general market intelligence.
Tech Example: A fintech prioritized customer interviews over analyst reports.
MedTech Example: Before launching a digital therapeutics app for diabetes, a company prioritized NPI-level physician interviews and patient adherence pilots over broad market reports. This helped them discover early that endocrinologists cared less about features and more about EHR integration.
D - Downside Protection (10 minutes)
Plan your safety nets before you need them.
Four protection strategies:
Portfolio approach: Don't bet everything on one decision
Staged investment: Break big decisions into smaller, testable phases
Option creation: Make decisions that preserve future choices
Circuit breakers: Pre-commit to exit criteria
Real example: When Netflix decided to invest in original content, they didn't immediately compete with HBO. They started with lower-risk content (stand-up specials, documentaries) to learn production capabilities before betting big on series like House of Cards.
Tech Example: Netflix began with stand-up specials before betting big on “House of Cards.”
MedTech Example: A biotech moving into cell therapy used staged investment by launching early clinical programs with narrow indications before expanding to broader populations. Similarly, stent manufacturers often run limited-market rollouts before scaling globally, giving them circuit breakers if adverse event signals emerge.
E - Execution Commitment (5 minutes)
Make the decision, communicate it clearly, and commit fully to execution.
Three execution principles:
Communicate the logic: Share your reasoning so others can make aligned decisions
Commit to the timeline: Execute with full conviction until your review checkpoint
Monitor leading indicators: Track the early signals that indicate which scenario you're heading toward
Tech Example: Tesla doesn’t half-launch — once committed, they align operations to deliver at scale.
MedTech Example: When Philips committed to integrating AI into imaging workflows, leadership communicated the rationale (faster diagnosis, clinician support) clearly across teams and customers, then monitored adoption indicators in radiology departments before scaling globally.
Putting It All Together: A Real Decision
Scenario: Your company needs to decide whether to launch a new product line in Q1 or wait until Q2 for additional features.
STRIDE Application:
Scenario Planning:
Optimistic: Early launch captures market share before competition
Realistic: Mixed reception, requires iteration based on feedback
Pessimistic: Launch fails due to incomplete features, damages brand
Time Boxing:
Decision by end of this week
Review progress in 30 days post-launch
Reversibility:
Type 2 decision—can pivot features or pause launch if early signals are negative
Information Gathering:
Customer interviews (3 days)
Competitive analysis update (1 day)
Technical feasibility confirmation (2 days)
Downside Protection:
Staged rollout to 20% of customers first
Pre-written communication for potential pivot
Reserved budget for rapid iteration
Execution Commitment:
Go/no-go decision Friday
Full team commitment to chosen timeline
Weekly metrics review for first month
The Uncertainty Mindset Shift
The goal isn't to eliminate uncertainty—it's to make better decisions despite it. The best executives don't wait for perfect information; they create systems to navigate imperfect information effectively.
Remember: In a world of constant change, the ability to make good decisions quickly is more valuable than the ability to make perfect decisions slowly.
